Africa: the rise of new mining powers to meet global demand

Africa, rich in natural resources, is seeing its mining sector reinvent itself at a time when global demand for critical minerals is reaching record levels. While traditional players in the sector continue to invest heavily, new countries are emerging with ambitious strategies to exploit their mining potential and attract foreign investment. These developments promise to transform the continent's economic landscape, long dominated by extractive economies.

A report published by the Africa Policy Research Institute (APRI) on 20 January 2025 reveals a growing dynamic of bilateral partnerships between African states and foreign investors. These agreements go beyond simple commercial transactions to include strategic and geopolitical dimensions. Between 2019 and 2023, 43 countries around the world adopted national strategies on critical minerals, marking a turning point in the management of natural resources on a global scale. For Africa, these strategies are essential for selecting the right partners and exploiting its mining potential in a sustainable way.

Some agreements encourage direct cooperation between states, while others create an environment conducive to private investment, the effects of which may be felt more slowly but more sustainably. Among the most active African nations, South Africa, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) stand out, having concluded several multilateral and bilateral agreements in key sectors such as cobalt, copper and lithium.

A striking example of this development is Liberia. Since the beginning of 2025, the country has strengthened its position as a strategic player in the African mining sector. President Joseph Boakai, in his State of the Nation Address, highlighted Liberia's enormous mining potential, whose reserves of iron ore, lithium, cobalt and uranium can serve as an engine for sustainable economic growth. Liberia is seeking to attract nearly $3 billion in investment in its mining and extractive sectors, with active negotiations underway with multinationals in various fields.

The mining sector already accounts for 15% of Liberia's GDP, and recent geological surveys point to new opportunities to boost this contribution. In 2021, the country recorded a record figure of over 660 million dollars in mining revenues. Rising global demand, particularly for strategic metals linked to green and digital technologies, is contributing to this growth.

Global trends - notably the transition to green energy and the acceleration of digitalisation - have put critical minerals at the centre of international concerns. According to the International Energy Agency, demand for these resources, notably lithium, cobalt and rare earths, could increase sixfold by 2050, reaching an estimated market value of 400 billion dollars.

This places Africa, rich in mineral resources, at the heart of global geopolitical strategies. The countries of the continent are becoming aware of the importance of their resources, not only in supporting the global energy transition, but also as a national security issue. In response to these challenges, many African leaders are adjusting their approach, choosing their partners very carefully in order to maximise long-term economic benefits and ensure strategic management of their resources.

Traditional players in the mining sector, such as China, continue to dominate Africa, particularly in key countries such as the DRC and Zambia. However, new investors are emerging, notably from the Gulf States. The United Arab Emirates, through investments such as the acquisition of Mopani Copper Mines in Zambia for 1.1 billion dollars, illustrates this trend. The rise of these new investors is helping to diversify partnerships in the African mining sector and increase investment flows, particularly in large-scale projects.

Zambia, which is experiencing a resurgence in copper production, is a case in point: in 2024, copper production increased by 12%, with production forecast at 150,000 tonnes for 2025. This growth is largely fuelled by foreign investment, the impact of which is already being felt on production capacity.

Despite these opportunities, the APRI report highlights the lack of transparency in many African mining agreements. Contracts remain unclear and often non-binding, limiting their attractiveness to long-term investors. In addition, financial incentives, such as preferential financing, will be needed to attract substantial investment. There is also a need to ensure that the benefits of mineral resources actually accrue to local populations and the economies of producing countries.

The African mining sector is at a decisive turning point. If African countries can successfully manage the new opportunities offered by global demand for critical minerals, they can transform their economies, in particular by diversifying their development model and attracting international investment. However, the key to success lies in the ability of African leaders to negotiate balanced partnerships, guarantee greater transparency and ensure that the mining sector makes a sustainable and inclusive contribution to the continent's prosperity.