After two prosperous years (2022-2023) in which oil prices reached record highs, the global oil market entered a correction phase. Brent crude, which was around $100 in 2022, fell to around $60–70 in 2024–2025, due to the combined effects of slowing demand, the US-China trade war, and OPEC+ refocusing on market share. This decline in prices is having a direct impact on oil revenues and investment plans. For the majors TotalEnergies, Eni, and BP, which have historically benefited from the "stratospheric years," it is time to revise their financial and operational objectives. As Patrick Pouyanné (CEO of TotalEnergies) pointed out in the second quarter 2025 results, the group's adjusted profit plunged 23% to $3.6 billion, despite an increase in production, while the barrel was worth only ~$68. For its part, BP confirmed that it was resuming its oil spending at $10 billion per year and aiming for production of 2.3–2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, to the detriment of renewables.
Africa, a strategic challenge for major companies
The African continent is playing an increasingly important role in the strategies of major oil companies. Rich in new deposits, it offers long-term prospects. For example, Italy has refocused its energy diplomacy on North Africa, with Eni planning to invest ~€24 billion in Algeria, Libya, and Egypt over the next four years. These Maghreb countries, like sub-Saharan Africa (Angola, Nigeria, Congo, Mozambique, etc.), are among Europe's main alternative suppliers. The major oil companies have signed colossal projects: TotalEnergies has resumed its liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique (~$20 billion) after an interruption due to insecurity, BP and Eni have created the Azule Energy joint venture in Angola to develop a giant gas field, and TotalEnergies is preparing to invest heavily off the coast of Namibia (Venus project) if production costs can remain very low.
Africa is also attractive due to its growing energy demand. Local production and consumption forecasts are high: Nigeria is aiming for more than 2 million barrels per day in the short term (and 3 million in the long term), Angola is expecting a 20% surge in gas production by 2030, and many countries are amending their legislation to attract investment. The emergence of national and regional companies (NOCs) and independents (Seplat in Nigeria, Afentra in Angola, Renaissance Energy) is notable: they are buying up blocks sold by the majors and putting money on the table, with Renaissance announcing $15 billion in investments in Nigeria over the next few years. This consolidation paves the way for a new cycle of growth in African production, with existing and exploration projects.
Major companies adapting to low prices
The fall in prices is forcing the majors to adapt their African plans. On the one hand, they are minimizing the immediate impact by maintaining their long-term objectives: TotalEnergies reiterates that it will continue to buy back $2 billion worth of shares per quarter as long as oil remains around $70, and forecasts a slight increase in global production in the third quarter of 2025 (+3% annualized). BP, for its part, is reaffirming its commitment to global oil and gas growth, revising its initial plan to increase production by 2030. Eni, which has a strong presence in North Africa, is maintaining its major structural investments, particularly in gas, through the Mattei plan, despite the decline in prices.
But these groups are not insensitive to margins: some projects deemed too costly are being put on hold. In Namibia, TotalEnergies has stated that an oil project (Venus) will only go ahead if the cost of extraction remains below $20 per barrel. In West Africa, Eni and Shell have already abandoned certain Nigerian onshore fields to focus on more profitable offshore areas. In addition, the majors are selling assets to strengthen their balance sheets: TotalEnergies has sold several holdings (notably in Nigeria and Argentina) for ~$3.5 billion in 2025. They are also reevaluating their energy mix. For example, TotalEnergies is now investing heavily in natural gas and electricity solutions in Africa, while BP is reducing its renewable energy spending in favor of gas and oil.
Pressure on African producing countries
The decline in oil revenues is weighing heavily on African export economies. Nigeria, Africa's largest producer, has already reduced its budget forecasts: its 2025 budget, based on a crude oil price of $75, needs to be reassessed as actual prices are hovering around $68. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommends tightening social spending and reforming subsidies in response to this volatility. In Angola, the continent's second-largest producer, the shock is such that a likely recourse to the IMF is being discussed. Angola's finance minister has acknowledged that the authorities are testing scenarios for lower prices and would not hesitate to freeze certain expenditures if Brent crude fell back to around $45. In early 2025, Luanda had to release $200 million in collateral to meet a bank margin call linked to the fall in prices.
These oil slumps raise fears of a reversal of fiscal consolidation efforts across the region. In Gabon, for example, the recent fall in prices following new US trade tariffs could further exacerbate the country's already dire public debt situation. Conversely, countries that are highly dependent on imports are benefiting from more favorable prospects (lower energy costs for South Africa, for example). But for major exporters, the message is clear: underestimating prices in budgets leads to cuts or increased debt. In the short term, tensions between major companies and African governments may increase: the latter sometimes demand production guarantees or stable revenues, while companies are adding more and more review clauses.
Outlook: an accelerating transition
In the medium term, despite this lull in prices, Africa remains at the heart of the majors' strategic plans. The growth potential of local demand (electricity, transport, industry) and the immense reserves, especially gas (Mozambique, Angola, Ivory Coast, Egypt), support optimism. In a context where OPEC+ is increasing production to capture market share, prices could stabilize around $70–80 rather than returning to the spectacular rise of 2022. The majors are therefore likely to continue with major African projects, focusing more on gas (growth in liquefaction in Angola and Nigeria, incursion into Europe via North African gas) and adapting their portfolios according to profitability and new climate regulations. However, the global energy transition and socio-political pressure will impose more constraints. Companies will have to balance their desire for oil growth (internal forecasts from TotalEnergies, BP, and Eni still anticipate a large fossil fuel portfolio by 2030) with local aspirations (employment, taxation, environment) and global aspirations (decarbonized energy).
In conclusion, while the decline in oil prices certainly calls into question short-term margins and forces budget adjustments, it does not seem to radically alter Africa's appeal to major energy companies. The three groups, TotalEnergies, Eni, and BP, continue to bet on the continent, aware that global demand remains strong and that Africa can play a central role in energy security in the medium to long term. The coming years will therefore be crucial: they will have to balance financial prudence (through cost control and portfolio rebalancing) with growth ambitions (through targeted investments, particularly in gas and decarbonization), under the watchful eye of African producer countries, which will scrutinize every effect of oil volatility on their revenues.