Although rare earths are common in the earth's crust, they are classified as rare because they are widely dispersed and rarely found in exploitable concentrations. China currently dominates the world's production of rare earths, accounting for 70% of the global supply. However, certain regions of southern Africa have significant reserves.
When Songwe Hill in Malawi and Steenkampskraal in South Africa reach full production in 2025, Africa will be taking a major step towards exploiting its critical resources. The continent has almost 30% of the world's rare earth reserves, and these new mines mark the start of sustained growth.
Rare earths comprise 17 elements essential to modern technologies, including MRIs, mobile phones and guidance systems, as well as renewable energies such as solar panels and wind turbines. Their importance to the global energy transition has earned them the title of "transition minerals".
With Chinese overproduction, particularly to meet demand for advanced robotics, a reduction in Chinese supply has led to a 2% increase in prices in January 2025. This coincides with a surge in mining investment in Africa, boosting interest in the sector.
Global demand is expected to quadruple by 2030, driven by the growth of renewable energies. Eight new mines will come on stream in Angola, Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania, contributing 9% of global supply. By 2030, Africa is expected to supply 10% of the world's production, a major increase compared with a tiny share in 2020.
However, cycles of overproduction and underproduction remain an issue. For example, a surplus of neodymium-paseodymium oxide in 2025 will reduce production from 5,400 tonnes to 500 tonnes. At the same time, demand for this mineral will increase by 15%, which could reverse the trend towards a shortage.
Despite Africa's entry into the market, China continues to dominate rare earth refining, accounting for 90% of global production. However, Africa is keen to develop its own processing capacity. The example of Zimbabwe, which has banned the export of raw lithium in 2023 to encourage the creation of local factories, illustrates this strategy.
African economists are calling for partnerships via the African Continental Free Trade Area to optimise the local processing of minerals. The European Union and the United States, seeking to reduce their dependence on China, could be key partners in this project.
It is worth noting that the major rare earth mines in Africa are not owned by China, but by Western companies such as Mkango Resources, Pensana PLC and Rainbow Rare Earths. In 2025, Australia's Lindian Resources will start production in Malawi, followed in 2026 by Ionic Rare Earths Limited in Uganda.
The boom in rare earths is not limited to extraction and refining. This development will create thousands of indirect jobs and help to improve transport infrastructures.
Key points:
- From negligible production in 2020, Africa will produce 10% of the world's supply of rare earths by 2030.
- New mines in Angola, Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania will contribute 9% of global supply.
- African decision-makers are looking to exploit this resource to develop their industries and infrastructure.