Against a backdrop of seasonal fluctuations in demand and sustained growth in supply from non-OPEC+ countries, the OPEC+ alliance is pursuing a cautious and adaptable approach to production quotas for 2026. According to recent analyses published on 20 February 2026, the group now favours revenue optimisation over volume maximisation, while ensuring that it maintains sustainable market share in the face of the rise of US shale oil and offshore projects in Guyana and Brazil.
During 2025, OPEC+ gradually increased production quotas by 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December, representing approximately 3% of global demand. This measure was followed by a strategic freeze on further increases during the first quarter of 2026, due to the usual seasonal weakness in consumption, marked by a decline in demand for heating oil and periods of industrial maintenance. This decision, initially taken in November 2025 and reaffirmed at ministerial meetings in December 2025, January and February 2026 by the eight main members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman), aims to maintain price stability.
Brent crude was trading at around $67 per barrel in mid-February 2026, a level considered strategic: high enough to support the budgets of producing countries without risking accelerated destruction of demand or excessively stimulating the adoption of electric vehicles. Projections indicate a 400,000 barrel per day decline in demand for OPEC+ in the second quarter compared to the first, while annual global demand growth remains estimated at 1.34 million barrels per day. At the same time, a significant reserve capacity of 15-20% is being maintained to enable rapid responses to market developments.
Quota compliance remains high, as evidenced by January 2026 production, which fell to 28.83 million barrels per day, a five-month low. Remaining capacity of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day is available for gradual reintroduction if conditions warrant. Flexibility mechanisms include quarterly reviews and monthly ministerial meetings, allowing adjustments to be suspended or reversed based on economic indicators, geopolitical tensions and competitive dynamics.
This strategy reflects the long-term challenges facing the alliance: responding to robust growth in non-OPEC+ production, anticipating the impacts of the energy transition and diversifying revenues beyond crude oil. A key meeting is scheduled for March 2026 to formalise decisions on production for April and beyond, with a possible gradual resumption of increases depending on the seasonal recovery in demand and market fundamentals.
By maintaining this delicate balance between price stability, market share preservation and revenue optimisation, OPEC+ aims to reduce volatility while strengthening its position in a rapidly changing energy landscape.