Chinese resilience: Beijing’s defence mechanisms in the face of instability in the Middle East.

As the conflict in the Middle East – pitting the United States, Israel and Iran against one another – enters its third week and partially paralyses the Strait of Hormuz – through which around 20% of the world’s oil passes – China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, is proving resilient. Despite prices soaring to over $100 a barrel on 16 March, Beijing is limiting the damage thanks to a long-term strategy built around massive strategic reserves, diversification of supplies, a revival of domestic production and the acceleration of renewable energy.

According to an analysis published by France 24 on 16 March, China derives part of its strength from its strategic crude oil reserves, estimated at between 1.2 and 1.4 billion barrels – a stockpile covering around 100 days’ worth of imports. “China has built up and replenished its strategic reserves over the last twenty years, precisely to prepare for moments like this,” explains Erica Downs, a researcher at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy. These stocks, accumulated discreetly, have been bolstered in recent months: crude oil imports surged by 16% in the first two months of 2026 compared with 2025, a sign of anticipation of the Iranian risk.

Dependence on the Middle East remains high – 57% of direct crude oil imports in 2025 came from the region, with Iran as a key supplier despite sanctions. But Beijing has reduced this exposure: the Middle East’s share of supplies fell from 60% to 50% over the past year, thanks to a marked shift towards Russia (increased deliveries via pipelines and tankers) and other sources (Brazil, Angola). The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project linking Russia to China could be accelerated in this context, despite tensions over Ukraine.

Domestically, China’s oil production has exceeded 4 million barrels per day since 2019, reducing the need for imports. At the same time, Beijing is pursuing an aggressive energy transition: by 2025, 38% of electricity came from low-carbon sources (solar and wind), with these renewables overtaking coal in the spring of 2025. The country plans to double its renewable electricity generation between 2022 and 2030, as part of its climate commitments (capping CO₂ emissions by 2030, carbon neutrality by 2060).

The widespread electrification of transport is bolstering this resilience: 12% of the vehicle fleet is electric, and 30% of new heavy goods vehicle sales were electric last year. As a result, oil now accounts for less than half of the primary energy consumed in China, compared with a much higher share in the United States or Europe. Anders Hove, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, notes that this strategy, which was initially industrial in nature, has gradually incorporated an energy security dimension.

In response to the immediate crisis, the government suspended exports of refined products (diesel, petrol) in early March to prioritise the domestic market, thereby limiting the rise in prices at the pump (+27.5 yuan, or around 3.4 euros for a 50-litre tank since last week). Beijing is stepping up calls for ceasefire negotiations and is hoping for preferential treatment from Iran for its oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz – a Pakistani vessel passed through the strait last weekend with its tracking system activated.

Donald Trump has proposed that China join a military coalition to secure the strategic waterway, though Beijing has yet to give an official response. Francis Perrin, a research director at IRIS, points out the limitations, however: “You cannot always replace one energy source with another. […] All petrochemical products – a key industry in any modern economy – require oil.”

Despite these strengths, China remains vulnerable to a prolonged shock: a collapse in global demand (driven by rising costs in Europe and the United States) could hamper its manufacturing exports. For now, its long-standing preparations are enabling it to weather the storm better than other major economies, turning a major geopolitical risk into a controlled test of resilience.