The « ruée sur le gaz » Western powers in the midst of an energy crisis represent a false promise of development for Africa, say activists and experts at COP27, who see the future in renewables.
The Russian invasion ofUkraine triggered a storm on the energy markets and pushed Northern countries, particularly Europe, to secure strategic supplies for their economies at all costs.
Europeans are therefore looking to African countries, some of which intend to benefit from this new race.
The Senegal or Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for example, have recently discovered oil resources and gas plants nurturing hopes of wealth. The Mozambique is attempting to develop a giant liquefied natural gas (LNG), delayed for safety reasons.
« L’Europe veut faire de l’Afrique sa station-service », laments Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift AfricaThis is the concern of many African activists at this year's COP 27 climate conference on that continent, in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh.
« Mais nous n’avons pas besoin de suivre l’exemple des pays riches qui ont en réalité causé le changement climatique », he argues.
For the NGO Climate Action TrackerThe global race for gas represents a « menace sérieuse » for the objectives of theParis Agreementwhich aims to limit the global warming well below 2°C and if possible at +1.5°C by the year 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era.
In Africa, projects also put valuable ecosystems at risk, for example in the Congo Basin.
But some African leaders do not intend to give up a potential windfall. « Nous sommes pour une transition verte juste et équitable en lieu et place de décisions qui portent préjudice à notre processus de développement », said on the podium of the COP27 Macky SallPresident of Senegal, whose reserves are coveted by Germany which is struggling to wean itself off Russian gas.
« Nous avons 600 millions de personnes en Afrique qui n’ont pas du tout accès à l’électricité. Plus de 900 millions n’ont pas accès à des énergies modernes pour cuisiner ou se chauffer », recalls Omar Farouk IbrahimSecretary General of theOrganization of African Petroleum Producers (APPO).
A marginal increase in emissions from Africa - which has contributed almost nothing to the climate change - « ferait une différence fondamentale pour la vie ou la mort des gens en Afrique », pleads the Nigerian.
« L’histoire montre que l’extraction dans les pays africains ne s’est pas traduite en développement » or « en accès à l’énergie pour les gens », retorts Thuli Makama, to Oil Change International.
The Western thirst caused by the war in Ukraine will be « de très court terme » and African countries that have invested in new capacity will remain with « des actifs échoués, des frais de dépollution et toute la dévastation qui accompagne cette industrie », says the Eswatini lawyer and activist.
This notion of assets « échoués » refers to products that lose all value. Some economists believe that hydrocarbons will quickly be marginalized by clean energyleading to their devaluation.
This is a danger pointed out by a Carbon Tracker report published on Monday. Fossil fuel prices will eventually fall and Western investment will evaporate, the authors write, urging African countries to bet on the solar.
« Pour nous aider à nous attaquer au défi de notre pauvreté énergétique, nous devons exploiter le potentiel incroyable dans les énergies renouvelables qui existe en Afrique », Mohamed Adow suggests.
The continent could thus follow a different development path from that of the West and « sauter » the fossil stage, as it went directly to the mobile telephony. Africa can become « un leader vert », says the Kenyan expert and activist.
The room for improvement is immense: Africa captured only 0.6% of global renewable energy investment last year, according to a study BloombergNEF (BNEF), but it has enormous potential, especially for solar.
According to Carbon Tracker, the continent could jump from 14 gigawatts of solar capacity to more than 400 GW by 2050, with costs falling further.