The alleged elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli operation has sent global energy markets into a state of extreme turmoil. This event, which occurred in late February, highlights the continuing vulnerability of strategic energy corridors, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20-23% of the world's oil and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the most critical chokepoint in the global energy supply chain. Every day, between 21 and 22 million barrels of oil and approximately 291 million cubic metres of LNG pass through the strait, representing a vital part of supplies to Asia, Europe and other regions. Any prolonged disruption in this narrow area – only 54 kilometres wide at its widest point and narrowing to 2.4 kilometres in the shipping channels – has immediate consequences for prices and supply chains. Scenarios involving even a partial closure force carriers to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, extending journeys by 10 to 35 days depending on the origin and significantly increasing fuel and insurance costs.
Iran, which has the world's fourth largest oil reserves at 158.4 billion barrels and the second largest natural gas reserves at 34 trillion cubic metres, has already seen its production affected by years of international sanctions. Before 2018, the country was producing around 3.8 million barrels per day; current levels fluctuate between 2.5 and 3.2 million. Prolonged political instability, exacerbated by an uncertain transition of power via the Assembly of Experts, risks exacerbating chronic underinvestment and leading to a technical decline greater than the natural rate of depletion of reserves. The South Pars/North Dome field, shared with Qatar and the world's largest gas deposit with 24 trillion cubic metres, illustrates both the potential and the fragility of the region.
The repercussions extend far beyond Iran's borders. Qatar, the world leader in LNG with an annual production of 77 to 82.6 million tonnes, is indirectly dependent on the stability of the strait for its exports. The United Arab Emirates, via the port of Fujairah and the expansion of its gas production, as well as Saudi Arabia with its infrastructure for redirection to the Red Sea (Yanbu complex), are seeking to diversify routes. However, these alternatives remain limited in the face of a systemic crisis.
Importing countries are bearing the brunt of these tensions. Turkey, which imports 18.6 million cubic metres of Iranian gas per day, could see its LNG needs rise to 5.3 million tonnes per year in the event of a cut-off. Egypt, with daily consumption of 175 to 185 million cubic metres and domestic production from the Zohr field, remains exposed. China, the main buyer of Iranian crude oil, could activate clauses in its long-term contracts or turn to other suppliers, putting further pressure on spot markets.
Energy analysts highlight the relative resilience of markets thanks to strategic reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency (1.5 billion barrels), US shale production and the global LNG boom. However, a scenario involving simultaneous shutdowns of several facilities would exceed historical precedents – the 1973 embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution, the 1990 Gulf War and the 2019 attacks in Saudi Arabia – in terms of intensity and duration.
Geopolitically, this crisis is accelerating the reconfiguration of energy alliances. Europe is continuing to diversify away from Russian gas, North America is consolidating its role as a net exporter, while Middle Eastern producers are re-evaluating their partnerships. In the longer term, the disruptions are encouraging investment in renewables, batteries, hydrogen and nuclear power, as well as in technologies such as floating LNG terminals to strengthen resilience.
Commodity market players are required to adopt sophisticated risk management strategies, balancing proactive hedging with the costs of overprotection. Indicators to monitor include insurance premiums (which can rise from 0.5% to 8%), option volatility, the structure of futures price curves, and satellite tracking of tanker movements.
As potential successors to Khamenei emerge and regional tensions persist, the strategic energy corridor of the Persian Gulf remains the most reliable barometer of global stability. The coming months will reveal whether this crisis marks a turning point towards an accelerated energy transition or whether it prolongs an era of sustained geopolitical volatility for global energy supplies.