‘The ocean floor is becoming the next battleground in the global competition for resources, and China is poised to dominate it.’ These words, taken from a report in the Washington Post (2023), capture the strategic importance of deep-sea mining. As the global energy transition accelerates, demand for critical minerals (cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese and rare earths) is skyrocketing. These resources, essential for lithium-ion batteries, wind turbines and advanced technologies, are abundant on the seabed, particularly in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean. With an estimated value of $20 trillion, these underwater deposits are attracting major powers, particularly the United States and China, in a race that is both economic and geopolitical.
Economic and strategic issues
Deep-sea mining involves extracting minerals at depths greater than 200 metres, often in the form of polymetallic nodules rich in cobalt, nickel, copper and manganese. These resources are crucial to meeting the growing demand for green technologies. For example, cobalt and nickel are key components of lithium-ion batteries, while rare earth elements are essential for magnets in wind turbines and electric motors. According to the World Resources Institute (2025), global demand for these minerals is expected to quadruple by 2040 due to the energy transition.
The seabed, particularly in international waters, harbours reserves several times greater than those found on land. The ZCC, for example, contains billions of tonnes of polymetallic nodules, representing a potential value of $20 trillion. This wealth is not only economic: it confers a strategic advantage on those who control it, strengthening their influence over global supply chains and technology industries.
Chinese dominance
China has taken a significant lead in deep-sea mining. According to New Security Beat (2023), the country holds five exploration contracts from the International Seabed Authority (ISA), more than any other state, giving it access to mineral-rich areas in the Pacific, Indian and Arctic oceans. Companies such as the Jinhang Group, backed by investments of RMB 20 million, are developing mining robots and intelligent control systems, with the aim of commercial operations by the end of 2025 (Stimson Centre, 2024).
This strategy is part of a broader vision. China already controls 70% of global rare earth production and a large part of cobalt and nickel refining. By investing in underwater mining, it aims to consolidate its dominance over supply chains, strengthening its geopolitical influence. For example, in February 2025, China signed a memorandum of understanding with the Cook Islands to explore their seabed, illustrating its diplomatic approach to securing resources (CSIS, 2025).
American ambitions
The United States, on the other hand, is lagging behind, partly because it is not a member of the ISA and has not ratified UNCLOS. However, recent developments show a willingness to close this gap. In April 2025, an executive order signed by President Trump mandated the exploration of mineral resources on the US continental shelf and in international areas (CSIS, 2025). This order marks a turning point, aimed at reducing US dependence on China for critical minerals.
The United States is also exploring partnerships with allies such as Australia and Canada, as well as with private companies. For example, the Canadian company The Metals Company is seeking US permits to mine deposits in the ZCC, bypassing the ISA (Chemical & Engineering News, 2025). This initiative has drawn criticism from countries such as China and Russia, which denounce it as a potential violation of international law (CSIS, 2025).
Environmental challenges
Deep-sea mining raises major environmental concerns. The seabed is home to unique ecosystems, often poorly understood, that could be irreversibly damaged by mining activities. Sediment plumes generated by extraction can suffocate marine life, while noise and light pollution may disrupt species adapted to the darkness of the deep sea (World Resources Institute, 2025). Environmental groups and scientists are calling for a moratorium until thorough studies assess these impacts.
Regulatory tensions
The International Seabed Authority (ISA), established under UNCLOS, is responsible for regulating mining in international waters. However, as of July 2025, the ISA has not yet finalised a regulatory framework for commercial operations, although discussions are ongoing at its 30th session (World Resources Institute, 2025) . This lack of clear regulation is fuelling tensions, particularly with initiatives such as that of The Metals Company, which is seeking to mine the seabed under the auspices of the United States, prompting objections from China, Russia and other countries.
Other global players
In addition to the United States and China, other countries are participating in the race. South Korea and Russia each hold three ISA exploration contracts, while Japan and European nations such as Norway are exploring their exclusive economic zones (Stimson Centre, 2024). These players, although less dominant, contribute to the complexity of global competition.
Comparative table: China vs. the United States in deep-sea mining
| Criterion | China | United States |
|---|---|---|
| ISA Contrats | 5 contracts, the highest number (New Security Beat, 2023) | None, non-participant in the ISA (CSIS, 2025) |
| Technology | Mining robots and intelligent systems under development (Stimson Centre, 2024) | Start of exploration via executive decree (CSIS, 2025) |
| Strategy | Supply chain dominance, diplomatic partnerships (Washington Post, 2023) | Reducing dependence on China, private partnerships (Bloomberg, 2025) |
| 2025 target | Commercial operations (Stimson Center, 2024) | Initial exploration (CSIS, 2025) |
| Challenges | Environmental pressures, regulatory tensions (NPR, 2025) | Non-participation in the ISA, technological lag (Bloomberg, 2025) |
Outlook and implications
The race for seabed minerals is redefining global geopolitical and economic dynamics. China, with its technological and regulatory lead, is well positioned to dominate this emerging market. The United States, although lagging behind, could leverage its technological expertise and partnerships to catch up, but its non-participation in the ISA remains a major obstacle (Bloomberg, 2025).
From an environmental perspective, the lack of comprehensive data on the impacts of deep-sea mining calls for caution. A robust regulatory framework, expected from the ISA in 2025, will be crucial to balancing economic interests and the protection of marine ecosystems. Furthermore, initiatives such as mineral recycling and urban mining could reduce dependence on underwater resources (World Resources Institute, 2025).
The race for deep-sea mining is much more than an economic competition: it touches on national security, energy transition and environmental preservation. China, with its strategic investments and regulatory lead, currently dominates, but the United States, driven by strategic imperatives, is seeking to enter the race. As the ISA works to finalise a regulatory framework by July 2025, the world is watching closely. The future of this industry will depend on nations' ability to balance innovation, international cooperation and environmental responsibility in order to exploit the riches of the seabed without compromising its integrity.