The global cobalt market is going through a difficult period, marked by a spectacular fall in prices. In two years, prices for the metal, which is essential for the manufacture of batteries for electric vehicles, have lost 50% of their value, reaching 24,300 dollars a tonne at the beginning of January 2025, compared with more than 28,000 dollars in January 2024. This fall is largely due to oversupply, largely supplied by the Chinese giant CMOC.
CMOC, qui exploite les mines de Kisanfu et Tenke Fungurume en République démocratique du Congo (RDC), a doublé sa production de cobalt en une année. En 2024, l’entreprise a produit 114 165 tonnes, contre 55 526 tonnes en 2023, dépassant largement son objectif initial de 70 000 tonnes. Cette augmentation massive, annoncée le 6 janvier 2025, a aggravé l’excédent de l’offre sur le marché.
According to the Cobalt Institute, a surplus of 14,200 tonnes was recorded in 2023, and the market remained in surplus throughout 2024. The Kisanfu mine, operated by CMOC, is identified as the main contributor to this surplus.
Bien que les prix du cuivre aient atteint des sommets en 2024, culminant à plus de 10 000 dollars la tonne en mai, cette tendance n’a pas profité au cobalt. En tant que sous-produit de l’extraction du cuivre, le cobalt a vu sa production augmenter avec celle du cuivre, dont CMOC a extrait plus de 650 000 tonnes en 2024, soit une hausse de 55 % par rapport à 2023.
However, despite this momentum, CMOC has not announced any cuts in its cobalt production, fuelling the surplus on the market and exacerbating the pressure on prices.
Overproduction continues to weigh on the sector, raising concerns among players in the value chain. With the Cobalt Institute forecasting a surplus market by 2025, uncertainty remains over CMOC's strategy. The company has not yet published its production targets for this year, casting doubt on whether it will reduce volumes.
On 3 January 2025, cobalt prices on the London Metal Exchange remained low at $24,300 per tonne, while copper was trading at $8,876 per tonne.
La chute des prix du cobalt soulève des questions sur la viabilité de nombreuses opérations minières, en particulier pour les plus petits producteurs. Alors que la demande pour le cobalt continue de croître, notamment en raison de l’essor des véhicules électriques, l’offre excédentaire pourrait freiner les investissements dans le secteur à court terme.
CMOC's role will be decisive in rebalancing the market. However, with production regularly exceeding expectations, the company remains in the spotlight, both for its performance and for its influence on the global cobalt economy.
The year 2025 promises to be a crucial one for the market, with players having to navigate between a glut, low prices and the challenges of the energy transition.