Geopolitics of the Gulf: Why the energy crisis is suddenly intensifying.

Global energy markets are in turmoil. The price of Brent crude broke through the symbolic $110-per-barrel mark on Wednesday 19 March, whilst European natural gas futures (TTF) surged by more than 35% in a single trading session, fuelled by the escalation of strikes on strategic oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

According to information reported by La Tribune (published on 19 March at 08:47), this escalation follows a series of attacks targeting key sites: Iranian facilities (including the South Pars mega-field, shared with Qatar), the Ras Laffan gas complex in Qatar (the world’s largest LNG export plant) and other regional hubs. These strikes, which occurred in the context of the conflict involving Iran, Israel and allied actors, threaten not only immediate production capacity, but above all the entire flow of traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz – a corridor through which approximately 20 % of the world’s crude oil and a significant proportion of LNG from Qatar and the UAE.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for the oil market, rose by more than 5% in a single day to reach $110 a barrel, a level not seen consistently for several years. In the gas market, the Dutch TTF hub recorded a spectacular surge: contracts for April 2026 exceeded €60–62/MWh in recent trading (after peaking at nearly €70 according to some intraday quotes), representing a cumulative rise of over 90% over the past month against a backdrop of persistent disruptions.

These increases can be attributed to a combination of several factors:

• Direct damage to production and liquefaction facilities (QatarEnergy has announced partial or total suspensions of LNG operations following the attacks).
• There is an increased risk of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping companies have suspended or rerouted their voyages, driving up insurance and freight costs.
• Fears of a knock-on effect on global supplies, as the Gulf accounts for a significant proportion of LNG exports to Asia and Europe.

For Europe, already weakened by energy volatility since 2022, this new shock could result in massive imported inflation, increased pressure on energy-intensive industries and a resurgence of debates on diversifying energy sources (accelerating the roll-out of renewables, reviving nuclear power, and increased reliance on American or African LNG). Analysts estimate that if the disruptions persist beyond a few weeks, gas prices could remain above €100/MWh for some time, forcing the EU to explore emergency options such as reactivating dormant Russian gas flows or implementing rationing measures.

Equity markets have fallen, weighed down by rising energy costs, whilst marine insurers and oil companies are adjusting their premiums and risk scenarios. At a time when West Africa (Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania) is stepping up its gas and oil projects, this shock serves as a stark reminder of the overall vulnerability of supply chains and the urgent need for greater energy sovereignty.

The coming days will be decisive: a diplomatic de-escalation could stabilise markets, but a prolongation of hostilities risks turning this temporary spike into a lasting structural shock for the global economy.