The refinery is currently operating at a capacity of 28,000 barrels per day, with the stated goal of returning to its pre-crisis full capacity of 45,000 barrels per day as soon as possible. According to Kodzo Yaotse, head of the Africa Centre for Energy Policy, this restart is "very good news" for the country. He points out that in 2021, the facility covered 60% of national fuel demand. With consumption growing, its share is expected to initially stabilise at around 40% of Ghana's needs, thereby reducing the national energy bill.
However, analysts are calling for extreme caution and stress that simply reopening the floodgates will not be enough. For Kodzo Yaotse, the critical issue is to avoid repeating the pattern that led to the 2021 shutdown. He lists chronic debt accumulation, unhedged exposure to crude price volatility, a recurring shortage of foreign currency and internal management problems as the major challenges to be overcome. The lasting success of this recovery, and its tangible impact for consumers at the pump, will depend on the new government's ability to instil rigorous commercial discipline and address these structural weaknesses in a sustainable manner.