The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, marked by geopolitical conflict and potential disruption of oil routes, threatens to trigger a global oil shock. While the consequences are already being felt on international markets, Africa, with its heterogeneous economies and dependence on energy imports, is particularly vulnerable. From Senegal to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the continent is preparing to face major economic and social challenges.
Many African countries, particularly those without significant oil resources, are heavily dependent on fuel imports. Senegal, for example, spends a large proportion of its budget on petroleum products to fuel its industry and transport. Sudden instability in barrel prices, such as that feared due to tensions in the Middle East, could worsen trade deficits and accentuate inflation, which is already a cause for concern in several countries.
In East Africa, nations such as Kenya and Uganda, which import almost all their oil, risk seeing their production and transport costs soar. This situation could slow economic growth and exacerbate social tensions, in contexts where populations are already struggling with the rising cost of living.
Oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, Angola and the DRC could, in theory, benefit from higher prices. However, this opportunity is far from guaranteed. In Nigeria, Africa's leading oil producer, structural challenges such as oil theft, under-investment in infrastructure and insecurity in the Niger Delta are limiting the country's ability to take advantage of a rising market. In the DRC, where oil production remains marginal compared with mineral production, oil revenues will not be enough to offset the effects of imported inflation.
Furthermore, the volatility of oil prices complicates budget planning for oil-producing countries. A temporary rise in revenues could be followed by a collapse in prices, as history has often shown, jeopardising economic stability.
The repercussions of the oil crisis are not limited to the economic sphere. In sub-Saharan Africa, where a large proportion of the population lives below the poverty line, the rise in fuel prices translates directly into an increase in the cost of transport and basic necessities. In Senegal, small-scale fishermen, who depend on fuel for their pirogues, could see their margins collapse. In the DRC, people living in urban areas, who are already facing electricity shortages, could see the price of petrol generators soar.
These dynamics could fuel social tensions and even protest movements. In 2023, protests against rising fuel prices had already broken out in several countries, including Kenya and South Africa. A new oil shock could rekindle these frustrations.
Paradoxically, this crisis could encourage African governments to accelerate their efforts towards an energy transition. The continent has exceptional potential in renewable energies - solar, wind and hydroelectric - that is still under-exploited. Countries like Morocco and South Africa have already invested massively in green energy, reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.
However, the energy transition requires colossal investment and sustained political will. In a context of economic crisis, governments may be tempted to favour short-term solutions, such as fuel subsidies, to the detriment of sustainable projects.
In the face of this threat, regional coordination is essential. Organisations such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union could play a key role in negotiating preferential supply agreements or establishing price stabilisation mechanisms. Furthermore, strengthening oil storage and distribution infrastructure at the continental level would enable shocks to be better absorbed.
The looming oil shock, the result of tensions in the Middle East, is highlighting the structural fragility of African economies. While some oil-producing countries may benefit temporarily, the majority of the continent risks suffering a cascade of negative effects, from inflation to social instability. More than ever, Africa needs to invest in diversifying its energy sources and strengthening its resilience in the face of global crises. In this uncertain context, regional solidarity and a long-term vision will be essential to transform this threat into an opportunity.