In a world rapidly moving toward carbon neutrality, Africa's abundant reserves of critical minerals appear to be the cornerstone of the global green economy. With approximately 30% of the world's reserves of critical minerals, including more than 70% of the world's cobalt, the continent is poised to generate billions of dollars in revenue while promoting sustainable development. However, realizing this potential depends on strategic governance, infrastructure modernization, and international partnerships.
Demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel is rising sharply and is expected to quadruple by 2030 as industries shift toward clean technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage. According to recent analyses, sub-Saharan Africa alone could generate up to $16 trillion in revenue from the extraction of these resources over the next 25 years. This windfall represents not only economic growth, but also an opportunity for Africa to transition from being a raw materials exporter to a hub for value-added industries.
African governments are increasingly adopting policies aimed at capturing more value domestically. Nearly half of the continent's countries have imposed restrictions on raw mineral exports, thereby encouraging local processing and refining. Zimbabwe, for example, plans to ban lithium exports by 2027, a move that has already increased its lithium-related revenues from $70 million in 2022 to $600 million in 2023. Similarly, countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Ghana, and Namibia are investing in refining capacity and battery production hubs.
One notable example is the collaboration between Zambia and the DRC, which have established a joint executive council on batteries and plan to create special economic zones dedicated to the manufacture of batteries and electric vehicles. Investors have committed more than $500 million to processing parks in these countries, demonstrating their growing confidence in Africa's industrial ambitions.
The Gulf states are playing a central role in this transformation. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has invested $110 billion in African projects between 2019 and 2023, including $72 billion in renewable energy and mining. A recent agreement between the UAE and the DRC will finance a copper-cobalt refinery capable of producing 30,000 tons of copper cathodes and 5,000 tons of cobalt sulfate per year. Saudi Arabia is also stepping up its investments, viewing African minerals as essential to diversifying its own economies beyond oil.
However, there are many challenges. Fragile supply chains and smuggling exacerbated by export bans pose significant risks. Global investment in critical mineral mining is expected to reach $180–220 billion between 2022 and 2030, but only about 10% is currently allocated to African projects, highlighting the need to improve governance and create investor-friendly environments.
To overcome these obstacles, innovative solutions are being explored. The appointment of Louis Watum Kabamba as Minister of Mines in the DRC is intended to signal reforms and stability. The African Development Bank is proposing an "African unit of account" backed by critical minerals to protect against currency volatility. At the same time, the United Nations has launched the idea of a global minerals fund to stabilize prices, promote sustainable practices, and ensure equitable management.
In the future, the opportunities offered by the green economy in Africa could redefine the continent's role on the world stage. By leveraging its geological wealth to develop its industrial potential, Africa can stimulate job creation, technology transfer, and environmental sustainability. However, to succeed, it will be necessary to strike a balance between geopolitical interests, mitigate risks, and prioritize ethical mining practices in order to avoid the pitfalls of the resource curse.
