Mali expects to increase gold production in 2025 thanks to the reopening of Barrick's operations

Mali, one of Africa's leading gold producers, is forecasting a slight increase in its industrial gold production in 2025, with an estimated 54.7 metric tonnes, according to a Ministry of Mines document consulted by Reuters on Wednesday. This projection comes after a significant fall of 23% in 2024, when production stood at 51.7 tonnes, and is based on the assumption that mining giant Barrick Gold, currently in conflict with the Malian government, will resume its activities.

Mali has around 15 gold mines operated by international companies such as Barrick Gold, B2Gold, Resolute Mining, Endeavour Mining and Hummingbird Resources. However, tensions between Barrick Gold and the ruling military junta have severely disrupted operations. In January, the company suspended operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex after the authorities blocked gold exports and seized three tonnes of the precious metal. Four Barrick employees have also been detained since November, accused of money laundering and financing terrorism, charges that the company categorically denies.

An agreement was signed in February between Barrick and the government to resolve a tax dispute that had been ongoing for almost two years. However, this agreement has not yet been approved by the Malian authorities, leaving uncertainty over the imminent resumption of operations. Interviewed by Reuters on 12 February, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow indicated that operations could restart as soon as gold exports were once again authorised. The ministerial document, which does not specify the date on which it was drafted, forecasts a resumption in March with production of 1.1 tonnes for that month, a target that has already been compromised as operations remain suspended to date.

In its annual report published this month, Barrick referred to a restart scenario on 1 April, while stressing that a definitive agreement with the government was not guaranteed on that date, if at all. Ministry figures show that the company produced just 0.63 tonnes of gold in January and nothing in February, illustrating the impact of the conflict on national production.

At the same time, Mali is diversifying its mineral resources. In December, the country entered the circle of lithium producers with the opening of the Goulamina mine, operated by the Chinese group Ganfeng. According to the Ministry of Mines, this mine should produce 381,959 tonnes of lithium spodumene by 2025, marking a significant step in the economic expansion of Mali's mining sector.

The optimistic forecasts for 2025 depend largely on the resolution of the dispute with Barrick Gold, which accounts for a substantial share of the country's gold production. Neither the Malian presidency nor the Ministry of Mines responded to Reuters' enquiries about whether the agreement with Barrick would be approved soon. In the meantime, Mali remains at a critical juncture, seeking to revive its gold industry while laying the foundations for a new era with lithium.