Mining industry: thirst for growth collides with water reality

Despite an improvement in production in 2024, logistical challenges continue to affect the South African mining industry, diluting its positive impact on the country's economy. According to Hugo Pienaar, Chief Economist at the Minerals Council of South Africa, although progress has been made in terms of logistics and power supply, these challenges persist.

Mining contributed 6% to South Africa's total nominal GDP in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 6.3% in 2023. Around R800 billion of exported goods accounted for 45% of the total value of South Africa's merchandise exports.

The Minerals Council pointed out that the mining sector had enjoyed a respite from the electricity shortage, with ten months without load shedding. However, although progress has been made in logistics, problems remain.

The Richards Bay coal terminal saw its volume of coal handled increase from 48 to 52 million tonnes in one year. Rail transport has also seen an increase, with a target of 170 million tonnes transported. However, reaching this target remains uncertain.

Pienaar and Mzila Mthenjane, CEO of the Minerals Council, stressed that financing Transnet remains a crucial issue. Transnet needs around 15 billion rand a year to upgrade its infrastructure, but the South African Treasury is reluctant to provide bailouts due to budgetary constraints.

"It remains to be seen how the private sector can get involved," said Pienaar. A number of questions remain: will the private sector be prepared to operate trains on a failing rail network? Will private investment replace a possible Treasury bailout?

Paul Dunne, Acting Chairman of the Minerals Council, insisted on the need to intervene to support Transnet. Improving rail infrastructure would not only make mining companies more competitive, but would also reduce pressure on the road network.

"Every train that arrives at the port takes 100 heavy vehicles off the road, which eases congestion and wear and tear on the road infrastructure", he explained.

In addition to logistical problems, the Minerals Council is concerned about water supply problems and the return of power cuts. Pienaar warned of stagnation in the construction sector, despite talk of infrastructure spending.

The mining sector remains stable, albeit volatile. Its contribution to GDP is higher than it was 30 years ago, mainly due to high commodity prices. However, if volume growth were to follow price growth, the impact on the national budget and exports would be significant.

"The mining sector has been saved by the rise in commodity prices", concluded Pienaar. "But this is a missed opportunity. Adding volume growth to price gains could really boost the South African economy."