Africa's share of global natural gas production is expected to reach over 11% in 2050, up from 6% in 2021. But most of the continent's production will be consumed locally, due to strong demand driven by accelerating economic growth and rapid urbanisation.
Africa will be the only region in the world where natural gas production is expected to more than double by 2050, according to a report published on 29 January by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), an intergovernmental organisation that represents the interests of the world's major natural gas exporting countries.
Fossil fuel production on the continent is expected to increase from 260 billion m3 in 2021 to 585 billion m3 in 2050. This 125% jump corresponds to an average annual growth of 2.8%.
The report also reveals that Africa's share of global natural gas production will rise from around 6% in 2021 to over 11% in 2050.
North America, the world's largest gas producer, will maintain its position during the period under review. Natural gas production in this region is forecast to increase by 285 bcm to 1420 bcm in 2050. However, its share of world production is expected to fall to 26% in 2050 from 28% in 2021.
The Middle East will become the second largest natural gas producing region in the world. The region is expected to supply almost 22% of global production by 2050, up from 17% today (1190 bcm in 2050 compared to 670 bcm in 2021).
The share of Eurasia, which currently accounts for almost 25% of world production, would decrease to 20% in 2050. Production in this region is expected to grow by an average of only 0.5% per year.
African demand will increase by 152% by 2050
Latin America's production is expected to increase by 46% (65 bcm) by 2050, an annual growth rate of 1.3%.
Europe will be the only region in the world where natural gas production is expected to decline over the coming decades. Its production will decline by an average of 2.9% per year by 2050, reducing the region's share of global production to just 2%.
Globally, natural gas production is expected to increase by an average of 1.1% per year, from 4025 bcm in 2021 to 5460 bcm in 2050.
The report " Global Gas Outlook 2050 "The report also reveals that the demand for natural gas is expected to increase by 36% over the next few decades, reaching 5460 billion m3 in 2050. The share of natural gas in the global energy mix would thus rise from 23% in 2021 to 26% in 2050.
Asia-Pacific will be the largest driver of natural gas demand growth, contributing about 50% of the net increase in global demand over the period.
In Africa, demand is expected to grow by 152% to 415 billion m3 in 2050, driven by accelerating economic growth and an increasing urban population.
Conversely, natural gas demand in Europe is expected to fall by 37% to 330 billion m3 in 2050, in a context of forced decarbonisation of the economy on the Old Continent.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum also estimates that investment in upstream gas (the stages from preliminary exploration to the extraction of gas resources) is expected to reach $9,700 billion worldwide by 2050. Of this amount, Africa is expected to attract about $1,700 billion in investment during the period under review.
Agence Ecofin
