Net zero emissions by 2050: The global energy transition in trouble

As the 2050 deadline for achieving "net zero emissions" approaches, decarbonising the global economy (valued at over $115 trillion and growing) seems increasingly difficult. Despite ambitious commitments, progress remains slow, and significant economic, political and social obstacles cast doubt on the feasibility of this global goal.

Between 2022 and 2023, global dependence on conventional energy sources (oil, natural gas and coal) fell by only 0.4%, from 81.9% to 81.5% of global energy consumption, according to the latest available data. This small reduction highlights the continuing dominance of fossil fuels, despite substantial investments in renewable energy. The slow pace of the transition highlights the enormous challenge of overhauling energy systems in an economy that is expected to continue growing.

A major obstacle to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is the lack of universal commitment. Countries responsible for around 45% of global emissions, including major players such as China and India (two of the three largest emitters), have not adopted the 2050 target. Instead, they have set their net-zero ambitions for 2060 or even 2070. This discrepancy in timelines undermines global efforts, as coordinated action is essential to achieving the Paris Agreement targets.

At the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, experts estimated that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 would require annual global investments of $6.5 trillion by 2030, rising to $8 trillion by 2035. This represents approximately 5% of global GDP devoted to climate initiatives, a considerable commitment, particularly for developing countries. Already economically constrained, these countries do not have the fiscal capacity to allocate such a large share of their GDP to climate investments. Meanwhile, richer nations face their own constraints. European countries are struggling to balance increased defence spending with their efforts to regain global economic competitiveness, while the United States is burdened by a national debt of $37 trillion, the interest on which now exceeds defence spending.

In addition to these economic challenges, there is growing political opposition in some regions. In Europe, a "green backlash" is gaining ground, with populist parties increasingly opposing green initiatives, often in tandem with immigration policies. This growing resistance threatens to derail climate policies as political priorities shift and public support wanes.

The path to net-zero emissions by 2050 is fraught with challenges, ranging from insufficient global coordination and financial constraints to political headwinds. While the urgency of climate action is undeniable, the current trajectory suggests that without unprecedented cooperation and innovation, the 2050 target may remain out of reach. Policy makers, businesses and societies must confront these realities head-on, balancing economic pressures with the imperative to act decisively on climate change.