Nigeria: Oil production below OPEC quota in December 2024

Nigeria's oil production reached 1.667 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December 2024, recording a significant increase of 7.38% compared with 1.552 mbpd in December 2023. However, this increase is still insufficient to meet the quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which stands at 1.5 mbpd excluding condensates.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria produced a total of 51.69 million barrels in December 2024, a slight increase of 1.9% on the 50.71 million barrels produced in November. The main contributors to this production came from the Forcados (8.49 million barrels), Bonny (7.78 million barrels) and Qua Iboe (4.15 million barrels) terminals.

However, excluding condensates, daily production was 1.484 mbpd, reaffirming the challenges Nigeria faces in meeting its OPEC quota. In addition, production declined by 1.35% from November's 1.69 mbpd, due to ongoing problems with pipeline vandalism and crude theft.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, attributed the improved production to the removal of regulatory bottlenecks and increased collaboration between stakeholders. These initiatives are part of President Bola Tinubu's directive to stabilise and increase the country's oil production to sustainable levels.

However, the fight against vandalism, oil theft and illegal refining remains a major challenge. These illegal activities have contributed to a 5.6% decline in production from the peak of 1.8 mbpd recorded in October 2024. Shell and other oil companies operating in the Niger Delta have reported that acts of sabotage and spills linked to crude theft are among the main obstacles to stable production.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria's oil and gas sector continues to attract investor interest, thanks in part to the Petroleum Industry Act passed in 2021. The 2024 licensing round awarded several new oil and gas assets to local and international companies, boosting confidence in Nigeria's energy potential.

Nigeria has managed to increase its oil production from historically low levels, but remains below OPEC's expectations. As the country continues its efforts to reconcile its domestic needs with its international commitments, it will need to address structural and security challenges to ensure a stable operating environment and achieve sustained high levels of production.