On Tuesday morning, oil prices rose moderately, buoyed by concerns about supplies from Russia and Iran. However, these rises are being held back by persistent uncertainty surrounding OPEC's strategy and questions about China's economic recovery.
At 11.40am GMT (12.40pm in Paris), Brent North Sea crude for March delivery was up 0.85% at $76.95. Meanwhile, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery was up 0.65% at 74.04 dollars.
DNB analysts note that Saudi Arabia's decision to raise its official selling prices for Asia in February, more than expected, is a signal of a potential drop in supply from Russia and Iran.
This dynamic has been reinforced by speculation about new US sanctions against Russia in the oil sector, as the Biden administration considers additional measures. These possible sanctions, combined with the stoppage of Russian gas transit via Ukraine since January 1, are creating tensions on the energy markets, with repercussions for crude oil prices.
Despite supply concerns, OPEC+'s strategy is limiting increases. The cartel recently extended its production cuts for a further three months, but plans to gradually reintroduce volumes to the market in 2025. "This prospect is moderating price momentum somewhat," points out Bjarne Schieldrop, analyst at Seb.
On the demand side, the oil markets remain attentive to efforts to stimulate the Chinese economy. Although the Chinese government has announced new stimulus measures, their impact remains uncertain in the face of a persistent property crisis and sluggish domestic consumption. China, the world's second largest economy and largest importer of oil, plays a crucial role in the overall demand outlook.
The oil market therefore remains in a delicate balance between fears about supply and doubts about demand. While geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to support prices in the short term, economic uncertainties, particularly in China, could temper this momentum in the months ahead.
Future developments, whether geopolitical or economic, will be decisive in determining the long-term direction of oil prices.