In 2026, the silver market continues to experience exceptional volatility, following spectacular growth in 2025, when the precious metal more than doubled in value. According to a detailed analysis, forecasts for the current year point to highly contrasting scenarios, ranging from relative stabilisation to spectacular increases that could exceed £200 per ounce in extreme conditions.
Experts agree that silver retains its dual nature as both a major industrial asset and a monetary safe haven, which amplifies price movements. Approximately 60% of demand comes from the industrial sector, mainly solar photovoltaics, electronics, electric vehicles and medical applications. However, this demand faces substitution phenomena (such as cadmium telluride in solar energy) and process optimisation (reduction in the amount of silver per unit produced), which could moderate consumption growth.
On the supply side, more than 70% of global silver production comes from by-products of copper, lead and zinc mining. This dependence makes supply relatively inelastic to price fluctuations, as mines prioritise the profitability of primary metals. Environmental constraints, delays in mining permits and geopolitical tensions in the main producing countries (Mexico, Peru, China) increase the risks of structural tightening.
J.P. Morgan anticipates an average price of $81 per ounce for the whole of 2026, with a quarterly average reaching $85 in the fourth quarter. Other projections, based on analyst surveys or more optimistic models, place the average range at around $79 to $82, well above pre-2025 surge levels. The Silver Institute, meanwhile, forecasts a persistent market deficit for the sixth consecutive year, estimated at around 67 million ounces in 2026, which fundamentally supports prices despite periods of correction.
The article details four probabilistic scenarios. The conservative case (40% probability) envisages a range of $75 to $85 per ounce, with stable industrial growth and moderate investment flows. The moderately bullish scenario (35%) forecasts $90 to $120, driven by the acceleration of the energy transition and renewed interest in safe havens. The strongly bullish case (20%) projects $125 to $175 in the event of significant supply constraints and large institutional inflows. Finally, an extreme scenario (5%) raises the possibility of exceeding $200 in a "perfect storm" combining supply shocks, major geopolitical crises and massive investments.
Investment products, particularly physical ETFs such as the iShares Silver Trust, play a decisive role in short-term volatility. Capital inflows amplify rises during periods of risk aversion, while outflows can trigger sharp corrections. Flows through these vehicles often outweigh the impact of industrial demand in terms of their immediate influence on prices.
Among the dominant bullish factors are the ongoing green transition, accommodative monetary policies (lower real interest rates), potential weakness in the US dollar, persistent geopolitical tensions and the historically low gold-silver ratio, which suggests that silver could outperform as it returns to its mean. Conversely, a more restrictive monetary policy by the Fed, an acceleration of industrial substitution or a rapid resolution of trade uncertainties could exert downward pressure.
Ultimately, 2026 looks set to be a pivotal year for silver, with volatility remaining high due to the complex interaction between industrial fundamentals, monetary dynamics and investor sentiment. If structural deficits persist, the metal could consolidate at historically high levels for the long term, although rapid corrections are now an integral part of the market landscape. Economic players and investors are closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve in the second quarter, developments in solar technology in the third quarter, and the overall positioning of institutional investors at the end of the year.