South Africa and Senegal: two models for a just energy transition in Africa

The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) is a key initiative to help developing countries move towards cleaner energy. At COP26 in 2021, South Africa led the way by signing the first agreement of this type, followed by Senegal in June 2023. These initiatives aim to mobilise funds and expertise to help nations reduce their dependence on fossil fuels while managing the social and economic consequences of this transition.

The success of JETP is based on a simple but crucial principle: promoting investment and collaboration between developed and developing countries, rather than imposing arbitrary restrictions. These programmes aim to support emerging economies in their energy transition at their own pace, while respecting their local needs and realities.

So far, only two African countries have signed JETP agreements: South Africa with 8.5 billion dollars and Senegal with 2.7 billion dollars. Yet their approaches and energy conditions differ considerably, providing an instructive contrast on how to approach the energy transition on the continent.

South Africa, where coal still accounts for more than 80% of electricity production, faces a complex equation. On the one hand, the country must guarantee its energy security in a context marked by chronic shortages and recurrent load shedding, which is slowing down its economic growth. On the other, it must honour its commitments to decarbonisation.

In 2023, power cuts reached unprecedented levels, affecting 335 days of the year. These difficulties were exacerbated by an ageing and under-maintained fleet of coal-fired power stations. However, thanks to a recovery strategy launched at the beginning of 2023, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, managed to temporarily stabilise the situation.

Despite this progress, dependence on coal poses a real dilemma. While renewable energy production is set to double to almost 29% by 2030, this will not be enough to offset the inevitable decline in coal-fired power stations. The conversion of power stations to natural gas is therefore seen as an effective intermediate solution for meeting growing demand while reducing emissions. South Africa expects its transition to require 99 billion dollars between 2023 and 2027, part of which will be covered by JETP funding, supplemented by private and public investment.

Senegal, which is less dependent on fossil fuels than South Africa, is taking a more flexible approach to the energy transition. Its $2.7 billion JETP agreement is mainly aimed at stimulating investment in renewable energy and strengthening its infrastructure. The aim is to achieve 40% renewable energy in its energy mix by 2030, compared with 22% at present.

To achieve this, Senegal plans to put in place an investment plan by the end of 2024, with contributions expected from both the public and private sectors. Technical assistance from its international partners will also be used to modernise its electricity network and integrate battery storage solutions. At COP30, scheduled for 2025, the country intends to revise its targets to bring them into line with its growing ambitions.

The JETP partnerships in South Africa and Senegal offer valuable lessons for the continent. However, their implementation is complex, marked by logistical, financial and technical challenges. These programmes still need to mature in order to fill funding gaps and attract sufficient investment.

The experience of these two nations could serve as a model for other African states seeking to achieve an energy transition that respects their economic and social needs. More than ever, an approach based on respect, collaboration and innovation will be essential to accompany Africa in this historic transformation.