With a further rise in fuel prices expected from April 2026, linked to the fallout from the conflict involving Iran and the surge in crude oil prices (over $100 a barrel (recently), South Africa has reignited a heated debate over the exploitation of its domestic oil and gas resources. The government, through the Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Gwede Mantashe, is pushing to accelerate onshore and offshore exploration and production in order to reduce dependence on massive imports and strengthen national energy security.
South Africa imports almost all of its hydrocarbon requirements, exposing its households, industry and public finances to global geopolitical volatility. The conflict in Iran has triggered a sharp rise in prices, making a significant increase at the pump ‘increasingly inevitable’ – potentially by several rands per litre, according to forecasts. This situation has reignited interest in potential local reserves: the country is estimated to have around 27 billion barrels of hydrocarbons within its territory, particularly in the Outeniqua Basin off the southern coast.
Gwede Mantashe has reiterated his desire to transform South Africa into a hydrocarbon producer, drawing inspiration from Namibia’s success in the Orange Basin, where several major discoveries (by TotalEnergies and Shell) have been made in recent years. The minister openly criticises legal obstacles and the actions of environmental organisations, which he describes as “resistance to progress” hindering economic development. He advocates for the revival of domestic refining capacity and the intensification of exploration, including offshore, to secure supply and reduce the cost of imports.
On the other hand, environmental NGOs such as Natural Justice remain firmly opposed. Allan Basajjasubi, programme manager at Natural Justice, points out that the government’s rhetoric contradicts South Africa’s climate commitments. The NGO successfully secured a court order halting seismic surveys carried out by Shell and the revocation of a drilling licence granted to TotalEnergies, arguing that national legislation protecting the right to a healthy environment, as well as the health and well-being of coastal communities, must be upheld.
These legal victories have slowed down offshore operations, despite the potential being deemed significant. The debate thus pits economic imperatives (security of supply, lower costs for households, growth through the extractive industry) against environmental and climate imperatives (ecological risks, energy transition commitments).
With fuel prices set to rise sharply in April – triggering a knock-on effect on transport, food and inflation – the government is preparing measures to cushion the blow, but insists on the need for a long-term strategy focused on local production. The year 2026 looks set to be decisive for South Africa’s offshore sector: between potential advances in exploration and ongoing legal battles, the country must choose between energy sovereignty and compliance with environmental standards in a tense geopolitical context.