The Dangote Empire: How the turmoil in the Middle East is reshaping the cement industry in Africa.

As the conflict in the Middle East and the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupt supplies of refined petroleum products, the Dangote refinery in Lagos is rapidly establishing itself as a credible regional alternative. In just a few weeks, traders have already shipped 456,000 tonnes of fuel to Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana, Togo and Tanzania, marking a dramatic acceleration in the Nigerian group’s expansion across the continent.

According to consistent reports published by several media outlets, including Jeune Afrique, Bloomberg and Energy Focus Report, the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery – the world’s largest single-train facility – reached full production capacity in February 2026. Faced with soaring Brent prices (which have exceeded $100, with peaks close to $120 a barrel) and a shortage of shipments from the Gulf, several African governments are now turning to Dangote to secure their supplies of petrol (PMS), diesel and other refined products.

Sources close to the negotiations indicate that Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon are among the main recipients of the first shipments. Ghana, which meets only around a third of its needs (125,000 barrels per day) through its local refineries, is reported to have begun purchasing two months ago, even before the conflict escalated. South Africa and Kenya are also said to have shown strong interest in long-term supply contracts (up to 12 months in the case of South Africa).

For Aliko Dangote, this surge in activity represents a major strategic endorsement. After years of delays and colossal investment (estimated at over $25 billion), the Nigerian refinery, which prioritises the domestic market, is beginning to export on a massive scale. The 12 shipments totalling 456,000 tonnes dispatched this month demonstrate the complex’s genuine capacity to become a regional refining hub, thereby reducing Africa’s long-standing dependence on imports from Europe and the Middle East.

This trend directly benefits the economies of West and Central Africa, which often face shortages and high volatility in retail fuel prices. In Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon in particular, where traditional imports are bearing the brunt of rising freight costs and insurance premiums linked to geopolitical risk, the arrival of Dangote products on more stable terms is seen as a breath of fresh air.

Industry analysts and observers believe that the crisis in the Middle East could permanently reposition the Nigerian refinery on Africa’s energy map. Whilst the continent produces around 7% of the world’s oil but has seen its refining capacity decline by a third over the past two decades, Dangote’s project embodies a long-awaited form of energy sovereignty.

It remains to be seen whether this expansion will lead to more formal partnerships – such as government contracts or local operations – or whether it will remain limited to sales through traders. For now, one thing is certain: the war in the Middle East, far from being merely a threat, is acting as a powerful catalyst for the Nigerian billionaire’s pan-African ambitions.