NEWS
Rystad Energy's forecasts for the upstream, shale and LNG markets in 2025

According to Rystad Energy, 2025 promises to be a year of major changes in the energy sector, driven by accelerated decarbonisation and the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI). These upheavals are taking place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, amplified by the results of the major elections in 2024 and the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump in the United States.
"We are moving from a period of energy scarcity to a period of energy abundance," says Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy. By 2025, additional fossil fuel and renewable energy capacity should outstrip growth in demand. However, a surplus on the oil market could force OPEC+ to extend its production cuts to stabilise prices.
Renewable energies will dominate the growth in electricity consumption, accounting for 90% of the increase in 2025. However, the intermittency of these sources is accentuating the pressing need for reliable energy storage solutions, making this year a decisive one for the sector.
Geopolitics remains a major factor of instability. Under the new Trump administration, Sino-American relations will be in the spotlight, while conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East will continue to shake the world order. At the same time, trade tensions, particularly as a result of the imposition of tariffs, are likely to slow global economic growth.
On the economic front, inflation and budget deficits are of concern to the major economies, while the slowdown in Chinese growth, exacerbated by a property crisis, could have global repercussions.
Global upstream investment is expected to decline by 2%, marking a stabilisation after the increases of recent years. However, increases are expected in strategic regions such as Suriname, Mexico and Turkey for deepwater, and Indonesia, Qatar and Russia for offshore.
The global oil market could face a surplus, with non-OPEC+ supply growth estimated at 1.4 million barrels per day, outstripping demand, which will increase by just one million barrels per day. This dynamic will exert downward pressure on oil prices.
Refinery margins will remain under pressure due to weak demand, particularly in the first quarter of 2025. The growth of electric vehicles and energy efficiency in China limit the long-term outlook for refineries, while delays in new capacity could lead to shortages in the second half of the year.
Despite the support shown by the Trump administration, US shale producers remain cautious. Their priority remains shareholder returns and growth through acquisitions rather than a return to expansive production. This pragmatic strategy is a response to oversupply and stagnating well productivity.
The Trump administration is banking on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to strengthen the United States' energy position. However, a global oversupply could disrupt prices, particularly if trade tensions with China persist. US developers will have to navigate between increasing exports to Europe and managing their relationship with Russia.
The year 2025 will be decisive for the energy sector, marked by a transition to more sustainable models and a complex geopolitical environment. The decisions taken this year will have a lasting impact on the world's energy future.
-
ANALYSIS2 ans ago
The 3 African countries richest in natural resources
-
NEWS1 an ago
Top 10 African gold-producing countries: Mali 2nd, Burkina Faso 3rd
-
FOCUS ONA2 ans ago
The 10 largest oil refineries in Africa
-
FOCUS ONA1 an ago
Top 10 oil producers in Africa in 2023
-
NEWS3 ans ago
Ranking of oil producers: Here are the Top 10 African countries.
-
NEWS1 an ago
Africa's 10 largest natural gas production fields.
-
NEWS2 ans ago
Top 20 oil producing countries in 2022
-
NEWS1 an ago
Côte d'Ivoire: Eni to deploy a cylindrical FPSO and a converted FSO on a Whale oil field