Oil prices could rise to more than $150 a barrel if the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, according to the World Bank.
A prolonged war in the region could lead to a sharp rise in energy and food prices, just one year after the price surge caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
For the time being, oil prices remain stable at around 90 dollars a barrel, and are set to fall. However, the Bank warns that this outlook could quickly be reversed.
According to its most pessimistic scenario, the World Bank estimates that a situation comparable to the oil crisis of the 1970s could develop, which could push oil prices up to between $140 and $157 a barrel.
In October 1973, Arab oil-producing countries reduced their exports to the United States and other countries that had supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War. This drove up prices.
« Le dernier conflit au Moyen-Orient fait suite au plus grand choc sur les marchés des matières premières depuis les années 1970 : la guerre entre la Russie et l’Ukraine », a déclaré Indermit Gill, économiste en chef à la Banque mondiale. « Cela a eu des effets perturbateurs sur l’économie mondiale qui persistent encore aujourd’hui. »
He added that political decision-makers should be vigilant, as the scenario of a "double energy shock", affecting both oil and gas supplies, had not occurred for decades.
European gas prices have surged this month as investors fear that pipeline disruptions near the Gaza Strip could affect global supplies.
However, until now, oil markets have largely ignored the impact of the conflict. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices fell by more than 1% to around $89 a barrel on Monday.
If the crisis in the Middle East does not worsen, current forecasts predict that wholesale prices will fall to $81 a barrel.
The World Bank said that the global economy was in a better position to withstand a supply shock than it had been during previous conflicts in the Middle East.
But the Bank was cautious, saying that the global economy was still recovering from last year's surge in energy prices.
Rising energy prices can lead to high inflation, as happened after Russia invaded Ukraine, with repercussions for other commodities.
« La hausse des prix du pétrole, si elle se maintient, entraînera inévitablement une hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires », a déclaré Ayhan Kose, économiste en chef adjoint à la Banque mondiale.
He added: "If a serious oil shock materialised, it would increase food price inflation, which has already been high in many developing countries. By the end of 2022, more than 700 million people - nearly a tenth of the world's population - would be undernourished."
The Bank fears that an escalation of this latest conflict could intensify food insecurity, not only in the region but throughout the world.
A better scenario presented by the Bank foresees a minor disruption in which global oil supply would be reduced by between 500,000 and two million barrels per day.
In this situation, the price of oil would rise to between 93 and 102 dollars a barrel, according to the Bank.