While the global average price of diesel stood at USD 1.26 per litre in February 2026, several African countries maintain significantly lower prices, sometimes up to 50 times lower. An in-depth analysis highlights how these low prices are shaping the continent's economy, boosting agricultural and industrial productivity, but also exposing governments to significant fiscal risks and import dependency.
Entitled "Africa's 10 Cheapest Diesel Markets: February 2026 Price Analysis", Muflih Hidayat's study examines the mechanisms that place diesel at the heart of African development. Road transport accounts for 80 to 90% of domestic freight in sub-Saharan Africa (UNCTAD), while poor road infrastructure costs 2 to 3% of regional GDP in lost productivity each year (World Bank). In this context, the price of diesel is not just a matter of the pump: it is a major determinant of economic competitiveness.
African champions of affordable diesel
The analysis highlights two main country profiles:
Oil producers with massive subsidies
- Libya: USD 0.02 to 0.05 per litre – extreme subsidy regime which, despite a tax burden exceeding 40% of GDP (World Bank), offers an unprecedented competitive advantage.
- Angola: USD 0.28 to 0.32 per litre – gradual transition to a formula indexed to international prices while maintaining targeted support.
- Algeria: 0.35 to 0.40 USD/litre – subsidy system graded according to sector.
Importing countries with efficient distribution
- Egypt : USD 0.44 to 0.48 per litre – gradual reform of subsidies since 2014 accompanied by social protection programmes.
- Tunisia : USD 0.50 to 0.55 per litre – regional partnerships and a liberalised market under supervision.
- Sudan : 0.58 to 0.62 USD/litre – bilateral agreements and state price controls.
The study also notes stability or slight declines observed in February 2026 in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Liberia, while Algeria, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Gabon recorded modest increases. Angola and Sudan remained stable.
A powerful economic multiplier
Cheap diesel acts as a catalyst for the sector:
Agriculture : Mechanisation remains low (5-15% compared to 40% in middle-income countries – FAO), but every 10% drop in the price of diesel results in a 2-3% increase in productivity on motorised farms (World Bank study in Nigeria). A reduction of USD 0.10/litre on a 50 hp tractor reduces hourly costs by 5 to 8%.
Industry and logistics : Transport costs account for 30–40% of manufacturing supply chains (UNCTAD). Countries with cheap diesel have logistics costs that are 15–25% lower than their competitors, boosting their export competitiveness.
Inflation A 1% drop in the price of diesel generally leads to a 0.3% to 0.5% decrease in food prices, directly easing the burden on households' purchasing power.
Subsidies: between support and fiscal peril
Fuel subsidies account for an average of 0.8% of GDP in sub-Saharan Africa (IMF 2022), but can reach more than 3% in the most interventionist economies. Egypt was still spending 5.2% of its public expenditure on subsidies in 2019 before embarking on reforms.
Three models coexist: direct price controls (fiscally burdensome), selective subsidies (more sustainable but complex to administer) and market prices with safety nets (targeted cash transfers).
The study highlights structural vulnerabilities: sub-Saharan refining capacity (3.5 million barrels per day) remains below consumption (3.8 million), reinforcing dependence on imports and volatility in global prices and exchange rates.
Towards sustainable reform?
"Low diesel prices are not only a boon for consumers and businesses: they are an economic policy tool that must be used strategically and sustainably," the analysis concludes.
As Africa faces the challenges of energy transition and global competitiveness, the price of diesel remains, in 2026, one of the most powerful – and controversial – levers of its economic development. The choices made today by governments will determine whether this fuel will continue to be an engine of growth or a dead weight on public finances.