Donald Trump's call to step up oil exploration and production under the slogan "drill, baby, drill" is giving rise to renewed optimism in Kenya, where the Turkana oil project, which has been bogged down for years, could finally see the light of day. At a time when the country is struggling to attract financing for its fossil fuel resources in a global context marked by the energy transition, this shift in US policy offers a glimmer of hope for unlocking the necessary investment, according to Kenyan officials.
Discovered in 2012 by Tullow Oil in the Lokichar region, the Turkana oil field is estimated to have 560 million recoverable barrels. However, the project has been hampered by financial and environmental obstacles, pushing back the date of first commercial export to 2028 - a timetable deemed ambitious given the accumulated delays. Tullow is awaiting approval of the Field Development Plan (FDP), which must be finalised by June 2025 under recent Kenyan parliamentary guidelines, before launching the development phase.
The reluctance of investors, particularly European investors, to finance oil projects because of climatic pressures has complicated the search for funds. With an estimated requirement of 3.5 billion dollars, much of it in debt, the project depends on partners prepared to commit to an emerging oil province like Kenya. It is in this context that the position of the Trump administration, which favours the exploitation of fossil fuels, could change the situation.
Daniel Kiptoo, Director General of the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), sees this policy as a chance to revive interest in Kenyan oil and coal. "The direction taken by the Trump administration could renew investor interest in our fossil resources, while allowing us to take advantage of both worlds: renewables and fossil fuels," he said. He stressed that the United States, under Trump, would not seek to impose a single energy model, but rather to work with African countries to reduce energy poverty.
The Minister for Energy and Petroleum has been tasked, along with EPRA, to fast-track the FDP for submission to Parliament by 30 June 2025. Early approval would allow Tullow to enter into a strategic partnership and start work at Lokichar, with a target of production within three years of financial close.
Despite this momentum, Kenya remains committed to its energy transition. With 92% of its electricity coming from renewable sources (geothermal, wind and solar), the country is an African leader in this field. "Developing our oil in Turkana and our coal in Kitui does not mean abandoning green energies", said one government official, arguing for a balanced approach that makes the most of all the country's resources.
However, environmental criticism persists. Global pressure to move away from fossil fuels, combined with local concerns about the ecological impact at Turkana, could make it difficult to realise this opportunity, even with increased US support.
For the Kenyan authorities, time is running out. If the funding window closes with tighter restrictions on fossil fuels, the billions of dollars buried beneath Turkana's soil are likely to remain untapped. Trump's policy, while cautiously welcomed, offers a chance to relaunch a project that is strategic for the national economy, while at the same time raising the question of its alignment with global climate ambitions.
As Kenya awaits its first barrels of commercial oil, this change of direction from across the Atlantic could well be the catalyst we've been hoping for - provided the stars align between now and 2028.
