What do I need to know about COP29 in Azerbaijan?

In November 2024, Azerbaijan will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP29, for the first time. This global event will be held in Baku, against a complex backdrop of energy challenges, climate change and geopolitical tensions. More than 200 countries are expected to attend this major summit, which will take place from 11 to 22 November at Baku Stadium. The conference will be chaired by Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan's Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, and a former executive of the national oil and gas company, SOCAR.

With the world heading for global warming of around 2.7°C, far from the targets set out in the Paris Agreement, this COP is particularly eagerly awaited for its ability to generate concrete action. However, the choice of Baku, an oil-producing capital, to chair the conference has many observers questioning the compatibility between global climate ambitions and the economic reality of the host country, which is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons.

An oil-producing country to preside over the COP: a paradoxical signal?

Azerbaijan is a key member of OPEC+ and relies on its oil and gas resources for almost 50% of its GDP and over 90% of its export earnings. Historically, Baku is one of the world's oil capitals, with oil production dating back to the early 20th century. Today, gas exploitation has taken over, and the country mainly exports its gas to Europe, particularly in the context of the European energy transition aimed at reducing dependence on Russian gas.

This heavy dependence on hydrocarbons raises a major paradox. The president of COP29, Moukhtar Babayev, confirmed that Azerbaijan would continue to increase its gas production, justified as a "transition energy". This statement has provoked criticism, particularly from NGOs, who believe that there is a clear conflict of interest. For Romain Ioualalen of the NGO Oil Change International, "organising COP29 is a risky gamble for Baku, which will be expected to take a hard look at its climate policy".

Climate ambitions under pressure

The main task of COP29 will be to accelerate the global transition to a low-carbon future and to strengthen national commitments to limit global warming to 1.5°C. However, nations' current plans place the world on a warming trajectory of 2.5° to 2.9°C by the end of the century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that this critical threshold of 1.5°C could be reached between 2030 and 2035, making the need for action more pressing than ever.

One of the major challenges at COP29 will therefore be to revise and update the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), i.e. the greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments made by the various countries. These commitments will have to be ambitious enough to keep the 1.5°C target alive, while promoting a just transition for the most vulnerable countries.

Climate financing at the heart of the debate

Another crucial point at this COP will be climate financing, particularly for developing countries. In 2022, for the first time, developed countries reached the target of mobilising 100 billion dollars a year for the climate transition in developing countries. However, this funding still falls far short of the real needs, estimated by the IPCC at 2,400 billion dollars a year between now and 2030. Azerbaijan has already put forward ambitious proposals in this area, notably through the creation of a special fund, the *Climate Finance Action Fund* (CFAF), which could be financed by voluntary contributions from fossil fuel producers.

Although this initiative is innovative, it has met with criticism. Some NGOs, such as Global Citizen, believe that voluntary contributions lack transparency and will not be enough to meet the massive financing needs. They are calling for the introduction of more binding taxation mechanisms for polluting industries, including oil and gas, as well as sectors such as aviation and shipping.

A reputation issue for Baku

Beyond the climate issues, the COP29 presidency is also an opportunity for Azerbaijan to improve its international image. The country, often criticised for its human rights record, has for years used the organisation of international events to enhance its image (Eurovision, Formula 1 Grand Prix, etc.). However, this effort at international diplomacy is also seen by some as an attempt at *greenwashing*, particularly in view of the increased repression of environmental activists and human rights defenders in the country.

In October 2024, a Human Rights Watch report condemned the arrest of several activists critical of government policies. These arrests have tarnished the image of a country that aims to be the centre of global climate negotiations for a fortnight.

A COP under high surveillance

COP29 in Baku is shaping up to be a decisive event in the global fight against climate change. At a time when the world is expecting concrete action and increased funding to support the energy transition, Azerbaijan will have to juggle its economic interests linked to hydrocarbons with international expectations in terms of climate leadership.

For Mukhtar Babayev and his team, the task is twofold: to conduct ambitious climate negotiations while responding to criticism about the compatibility of the Azerbaijani presidency with fossil fuel reduction targets. The eyes of the world will be on Baku, where every decision will be scrutinised, both on the substance of the climate talks and on the way the country manages its own energy and political contradictions.