Black gold soars 2% against the backdrop of the Israeli-Iranian crisis.

This Friday, oil prices recorded a notable rise of almost 2%, reflecting growing concerns about a possible retaliation by Iran against Israel. This increase is linked to growing tensions in the region, fuelled by recent reports of a possible Iranian attack.

On Thursday, Israeli public broadcaster KAN reported that Iran was considering a response to the Israeli attack on Saturday. The attack reportedly targeted several Iranian military installations, causing “limited damage” in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam. According to official Iranian sources, the attack killed four soldiers and one civilian. In response, Iran promised a “brutal” reaction against Israel, declaring that Tel Aviv would “regret it”.

Oil markets reacted to the news with palpable nervousness. Brent crude futures for January delivery rose by 2% to $74.21 a barrel on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange). This rise in prices illustrates the vulnerability of global supplies to geopolitical fluctuations, particularly in a region as strategic as the Middle East.

Iran, which produces an average of 3.3 million barrels of crude oil a day, occupies a crucial position in this region. Its coastline stretches across the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with the Strait of Hormuz as its nerve center. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, more than 27 million barrels of oil and by-products pass through this strait every day, linking exports from Iraq and other Gulf countries to the rest of the world.

The prospect of an Iranian attack using drones and ballistic missiles, potentially launched from Iraqi territory, is raising serious concerns about stability in this strategic zone. The situation remains tense and could continue to impact oil markets in the short term, as investors closely monitor developments in this confrontation.

Industry analysts predict that any disruption to Iranian crude exports or to the security of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a further rise in world oil prices. The Middle East, as a central region for global supply, remains extremely sensitive to geopolitical conflicts, particularly those involving regional powers such as Iran and Israel.

Developments in this situation could also influence the decisions of OPEC producer countries, of which Iran is a member, regarding their production strategy against a backdrop of growing international tensions.

Meanwhile, markets continue to observe Iran's next moves and Israel's possible responses, while oil prices could remain high, or even rise, if tensions continue.