Namibia: The supermajors battle over the huge Mopane oil discovery

The Mopane discovery in the Orange Basin, off the coast of Namibia, is attracting a great deal of interest from the world's leading oil companies. According to estimates by the Portuguese energy company Galp, the discovery could contain up to 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent, making it the largest ever found in this fast-growing region. The announcement of this gigantic reserve triggered a rush of international oil companies, ready to acquire a share of this world-class deposit.

Galp, which holds an 80% stake in the PEL 83 licence, shares the project with Namcor, Namibia's national oil company, and Custos, a local company, each holding a 10% stake. Toronto-based explorer Sintana Energy, with a 49% stake in Custos, also has a strategic presence in offshore Namibia.

Galp CEO Filipe Silva said the company was prepared to sell up to half of its 40% stake in Mopane, but not before drilling four more wells by the end of 2024. Silva said that Galp was not in a hurry to reduce the risks associated with the discovery and preferred a partner capable of rapidly developing the field and contributing to capital expenditure. A partner should be found "later in 2025", according to Silva.

The bidding process has already begun, and many major players in the oil industry are vying for a stake in the project. A source close to the matter confirmed to S&P Global Commodity Insights that "interest has been immense, including from the supermajors", without however mentioning the names of the companies involved.

Among the interested companies, Brazil's state-owned Petrobras has expressed its desire to acquire a 40% stake in Mopane. Sylvia dos Anjos, director of exploration and production at Petrobras, said the company wanted a significant stake in the project, citing the importance of owning at least 40% in order to operate effectively.

Petrobras is looking to strengthen its presence in Africa, a region where it sees significant potential, particularly in the deepwater sector. The company has recently acquired interests in projects in South Africa and Sao Tome and Principe, and sees Mopane as an opportunity to capitalise on its expertise.

Mopane, located in blocks 2813A and 2814B of oil exploration licence 83, is now the focus of attention of the biggest names in the oil industry. Chevron, TotalEnergies, Shell and Australia's Woodside have all expressed potential interest in the project, although they have not officially confirmed their participation in the tender.

This discovery follows on from the major Venus and Graff discoveries made in 2022 by TotalEnergies and Shell, which marked a turning point in oil exploration in Namibia. Venus, with estimated reserves of 5 billion barrels, and Graff triggered a rush towards the Orange Basin, a region now considered one of the most promising for the global oil industry.

Galp has already drilled two wells in the area, Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X, both of which have revealed large columns of light oil in high-quality reservoirs. These results confirm the commercial potential of the discovery. According to estimates by *Commodity Insights*, production from Mopane could begin in 2030, reaching a plateau of 211,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2037.

Namibia's production prospects are very promising. By 2035, combined oil production from the Venus, Graff and Jonker fields could reach 380,000 barrels per day. If these forecasts materialise, Namibia - which currently produces no hydrocarbons - could become a major player in the African oil industry, with a significant economic impact.

The discovery of Mopane represents a historic opportunity for Namibia. As the country seeks to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment, this new exploration frontier could transform its economic landscape. By exploiting its vast oil reserves, Namibia could become a major oil producer in Africa and benefit from a stable source of revenue to finance its development.

However, to realise this potential, Namibia will need to attract solid partners capable of making the necessary investments to exploit these deposits. With increasing competition among the industry's biggest players, the country could find itself in a strong position to negotiate advantageous agreements, while ensuring that these resources benefit the entire population.