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The world will still need hydrocarbons in 2050, according to a study

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The world will still need hydrocarbons in 2050, according to a study
Even in the best ecological scenario, hydrocarbons will still dominate the global energy mix in 2050, according to a study by TotalEnergies. Many of these decisions will rest on the shoulders of the global South.
A not-so-green transition. Despite the international community's efforts to move towards less polluting energies, gas, coal and oil will still be indispensable in 2050, according to a study by TotalEnergies.
The French group has imagined three scenarios for 2050. But even in the most optimistic scenario, hydrocarbons will still account for 40% of energy demand, compared with 60% for renewable energies and nuclear power.
The most pessimistic scenario results in a 70% share of hydrocarbons, accompanied by a temperature rise of 3 degrees. The median scenario arrives at a 55% share of hydrocarbons, if China abandons coal.

The Global South, key to the problem

The TotalEnergies study also highlights the role that the global South will have to play in a potential green transition. By 2050, energy demand in emerging countries will have multiplied by 1.7, even in an optimistic scenario.
The global challenge is to gradually move away from hydrocarbons, without harming emerging countries that rely heavily on these energies for their development.
« La transition énergétique doit répondre à l’aspiration légitime du Sud global à un niveau de vie plus élevé: sortie de la pauvreté, accès à l’éducation, à la santé, ce qui suppose en premier lieu l’accès à l’énergie », résume ainsi le rapport.
Pour parvenir à l’équilibre, une forme de justice climatique doit s’imposer, basée sur des financements mais aussi des transferts de technologie et de la formation, souligne ainsi l’étude. En 2022, les participants de la COP27 s’étaient d’ailleurs déchirés sur l’idée d’une compensation de « pertes et dommages » climatiques pour les pays pauvres. Un texte avait été voté in-extremis.

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