The most pessimistic scenario results in a 70% share of hydrocarbons, accompanied by a temperature rise of 3 degrees. The median scenario arrives at a 55% share of hydrocarbons, if China abandons coal.
The Global South, key to the problem
The TotalEnergies study also highlights the role that the global South will have to play in a potential green transition. By 2050, energy demand in emerging countries will have multiplied by 1.7, even in an optimistic scenario.
The global challenge is to gradually move away from hydrocarbons, without harming emerging countries that rely heavily on these energies for their development.
"The energy transition must respond to the legitimate aspirations of the global South for a higher standard of living: an escape from poverty, access to education and health, which presupposes first and foremost access to energy", summarizes the report.
To achieve a balance, a form of climate justice is needed, based not only on financing but also on technology transfer and training, the study points out. In 2022, participants at COP27 were torn on the idea of compensating poor countries for climate "loss and damage". A text was voted on at the last minute.
