OPEC forecasts robust growth in oil demand in 2025.

The world would consume an average of 106.2 million barrels of oil every day in 2024, compared with an estimated 104.4 million in 2024 and 102.1 in 2023.

Demand for oil is set to grow "robustly" in 2025, towards a new record, according to the first forecasts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) published in its monthly report. The world will consume an average of 106.2 million barrels of oil every day next year, compared with an estimated 104.4 million in 2024 and 102.1 in 2023.

These forecasts place demand for black gold at a new record high, despite calls from climate experts to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, the biggest contributors to global warming. "Initial forecasts of global oil demand growth in 2025 show robust year-on-year growth of 1.8 million barrels per day" (compared with 2024), says OPEC in the report.

Growth driven by non-OECD countries

This increase in demand for black gold will be driven "by continued solid economic activity in China and sustained growth expected in other non-OECD countries", stresses the oil cartel.

In detail, demand in OECD countries is expected to rise only slightly, by 0.1 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2025, to 46.13 million barrels per day, without exceeding pre-pandemic levels in 2019. In non-OECD countries, "considerable growth" of 1.7 million barrels per day is expected, mainly driven by China, the Middle East and India, exceeding 60 million barrels per day.

Projected growth in global oil demand for 2025 remains lower than in 2024, with an increase of 2.2 million barrels per day expected this year, mainly in non-OECD countries, an outlook unchanged from OPEC estimates communicated in December.